Only one of two things can happen when a price approaches support or resistance: the price can break through it, or it can bounce off and reverse direction. The same is of course true for trend lines.
Trading on a Pullback
If a chart is trending in a clear direction, and a trend line can be drawn connecting a series of relative highs or relative lows, trading opportunities exist when the price approaches the trend line. If the price bounces off the trend line and resumes the trend in the original direction, this can be an excellent opportunity to enter the market in the direction of the dominant trend. This is often referred to as buying on a pullback in an up trend or selling into strength in a downtrend.
Buying on a bounce off such a support line can be done through a limit order just above the support.
Trading a Break of the Trend
The second possible trade is the break of the trend line, which can be traded just as any other broken support or resistance line. If a candle closes through a trend line to the downside, as in the example below, the proper entry point would be to sell once the price moves below the low of the breakthrough candle.
This ensures that the short term force is in the direction of the break lower. The opposite would be true for a break above a resistance line.
Showing posts with label Trend Indicators.. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trend Indicators.. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Monday, October 19, 2009
Understanding Trend Lines.
Trend Lines are the most powerful technical analysis tools. They allow you to gauge the trends direction, identify potential reversal levels and enter trades with low risk and high reward. In this article, you will learn how to use trend lines indicators in FOREX trading
An uptrend creates a series of trends that have higher lows and highs. A trend line drawn between the rising lows can often be fairly accurate in determining where the market can find greater support during the next low trend and indicate fairly good buying levels. In the Up Trend, Forex trend line that connects at least two lowest low (Low open/Close) will create a trend line. In the uptrend a trend line acts as Support.
Many Forex traders will choose an area below the trend line at which stop orders are are placed resulting in a sharp sell off. New sellers are generally attracted by breaks below the uptrend line. It's quite normal to see a series of lower lows and lower highs during a downward trend in the market.In this case, the trend line is drawn in alignment with the descending highs and will mirror the analysis as described above. In the Down Trend Forex trend line that connects at least two highest highs (High Open/Close) will create a trend line. In the downtrend a trend line acts as Resistance.
An uptrend creates a series of trends that have higher lows and highs. A trend line drawn between the rising lows can often be fairly accurate in determining where the market can find greater support during the next low trend and indicate fairly good buying levels. In the Up Trend, Forex trend line that connects at least two lowest low (Low open/Close) will create a trend line. In the uptrend a trend line acts as Support.
Many Forex traders will choose an area below the trend line at which stop orders are are placed resulting in a sharp sell off. New sellers are generally attracted by breaks below the uptrend line. It's quite normal to see a series of lower lows and lower highs during a downward trend in the market.In this case, the trend line is drawn in alignment with the descending highs and will mirror the analysis as described above. In the Down Trend Forex trend line that connects at least two highest highs (High Open/Close) will create a trend line. In the downtrend a trend line acts as Resistance.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Leading And Lagging Indicators.
The term “indicator” refers to a metric whose main task is to point towards a certain situation/aspect etc - in short: to “indicate” something. For example the metric “cost-per-click” indicates how much one has to pay for one click at a certain time on a certain link.
Leading Technical Indicators are the indicators that help to predict possible future trend. Many trading systems use these types of indicators to generate trend reversal signals. However, there is no guarantee that the analyzed security, index or market will reverse its trend after a signal is generated. The common problem with this type of technical studies is that in some cases a trade could be opened too early and the signal could be ignored (no reversal). Examples of such indicators could be volume based technical indicators. Examples of these would be:
1. number of booked impressions for a certain ad position for the coming quarter (e.g. 100000 ad impressions for REC booked for Q2 2007)
2. budget for specific keyword groups for the next quarter (e.g. 100.000 USD for keyword-group “fitness” booked for Q2 2007)
3. number of leads referred by affiliate partner campaigns to a certain product (e.g. 500.000 leads monthly referred by campaign “X” to product “Y”)
Lagging Technical Indicators are the technical indicators that would rather follow a trend then predict its reversal. These studies are more reliable than the leading technical indicators. However they have other problem: in many cases a trade could be opened and closed when it is too late and the trend already in reversal movement. Example of these studies could be MACD, Moving Averages, etc. Examples
1. number of page impressions for a specific product within the past month (e.g. 1 million page impressions for product “X” in August 2006)
2. number of unique users for a specific site (e.g. 100.000 unique users for the sports special “FIFA WM” in June 2006)
3. amount of revenue generated with a specific product
Leading indicators mostly refer to the beginning of the value chain and reflect the drivers and/or causes of value whereas lagging indicators mostly refer to the end of the value chain and reflect the effect certain measures, decisions, actions had.
Leading Technical Indicators are the indicators that help to predict possible future trend. Many trading systems use these types of indicators to generate trend reversal signals. However, there is no guarantee that the analyzed security, index or market will reverse its trend after a signal is generated. The common problem with this type of technical studies is that in some cases a trade could be opened too early and the signal could be ignored (no reversal). Examples of such indicators could be volume based technical indicators. Examples of these would be:
1. number of booked impressions for a certain ad position for the coming quarter (e.g. 100000 ad impressions for REC booked for Q2 2007)
2. budget for specific keyword groups for the next quarter (e.g. 100.000 USD for keyword-group “fitness” booked for Q2 2007)
3. number of leads referred by affiliate partner campaigns to a certain product (e.g. 500.000 leads monthly referred by campaign “X” to product “Y”)
Lagging Technical Indicators are the technical indicators that would rather follow a trend then predict its reversal. These studies are more reliable than the leading technical indicators. However they have other problem: in many cases a trade could be opened and closed when it is too late and the trend already in reversal movement. Example of these studies could be MACD, Moving Averages, etc. Examples
1. number of page impressions for a specific product within the past month (e.g. 1 million page impressions for product “X” in August 2006)
2. number of unique users for a specific site (e.g. 100.000 unique users for the sports special “FIFA WM” in June 2006)
3. amount of revenue generated with a specific product
Leading indicators mostly refer to the beginning of the value chain and reflect the drivers and/or causes of value whereas lagging indicators mostly refer to the end of the value chain and reflect the effect certain measures, decisions, actions had.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Advantages Of Using Support And Resistance.
The importance of studying support and resistance levels in multiple timeframes cannot be overestimated. Starting from the longest term chart (monthly), traders need to establish the important support and resistances and then transfer them to the medium term chart (weekly) of the same market. Then, having added any new medium term support and resistances that can be discovered, transfer all levels to a short term chart (daily). To summarise:-
1) The study of support and resistance is vital for controlling a position: where to cut risk and where to take profit.
2) trends, patterns and Fibonacci constructions all give rise to support and resistance levels in a single chart.
3) Multiple timeframes give rise to still more levels.
4) The supports and resistances derived from all these timeframes can be simplified by assessing their importance and proximity to any given position.
6) The most important thing is that you will never get a sense of confidence from oscillators. The problem with oscillators is they tell you what happened in the past, and they’re derived from price, Oscillators don’t tell you very much about the future. The way most traders use them, they’re not much better than flipping a coin.
1) The study of support and resistance is vital for controlling a position: where to cut risk and where to take profit.
2) trends, patterns and Fibonacci constructions all give rise to support and resistance levels in a single chart.
3) Multiple timeframes give rise to still more levels.
4) The supports and resistances derived from all these timeframes can be simplified by assessing their importance and proximity to any given position.
6) The most important thing is that you will never get a sense of confidence from oscillators. The problem with oscillators is they tell you what happened in the past, and they’re derived from price, Oscillators don’t tell you very much about the future. The way most traders use them, they’re not much better than flipping a coin.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Determining Support And Resistance Levels.
Determining support and resistance levels are somewhat different for the day trader than the position trader. This is because support and resistance levels for the day trader must be closer to the current market price that they are for the long term or position trader. Markets can only drop so far in one day, and as such the determination of support and resistance levels by the day trader must be realistic in terms of what can be expected – however this does mean that day traders must be willing to use technical support and resistance levels to establish their positions.
The following rules may appear very simple, but they are very effective at isolating support and resistance levels and can be applied in any market:
1. Follow a 3-day simple moving average of the lows, and a 3-day moving average of the highs.
2. Take the 3-day moving average of the lows to define your support level, and the 3-day moving average of the highs to define your resistance level.
3. Draw a line at the support of the lows, if the trade has made a 3-day high in say the last 3 days (you can use four or five days, depending on your trading method) This means that you will only draw in the 3-day moving average of the highs if the stock has made a 3-day low in the last three days – this means that you only want to sell when the short term is down.
This is a very simple method of trading stocks and commodities on a daily basis, and if calculated correctly they will work. Combine this with the insight that candlestick charts give you and you can create a system that works for you. Let me give you a example:
The above chart for Halliburton (HAL)[HAL] shows a large trading range between Dec-99 and Mar-00. Support was established with the October low around 33. In December, the stock returned to support in the mid-thirties and formed a low around 34. Finally, in February the stock again returned to the support scene and formed a low around 33 1/2.
After each bounce off support, the stock traded all the way up to resistance. Resistance was first established by the September support break at 42.5. After a support level is broken, it can turn into a resistance level. From the October lows, the stock advanced to the new support-turned-resistance level around 42.5. When the stock failed to advance past 42.5, the resistance level was confirmed. The stock subsequently traded up to 42.5 two more times after that and failed to surpass resistance both times.
The following rules may appear very simple, but they are very effective at isolating support and resistance levels and can be applied in any market:
1. Follow a 3-day simple moving average of the lows, and a 3-day moving average of the highs.
2. Take the 3-day moving average of the lows to define your support level, and the 3-day moving average of the highs to define your resistance level.
3. Draw a line at the support of the lows, if the trade has made a 3-day high in say the last 3 days (you can use four or five days, depending on your trading method) This means that you will only draw in the 3-day moving average of the highs if the stock has made a 3-day low in the last three days – this means that you only want to sell when the short term is down.
This is a very simple method of trading stocks and commodities on a daily basis, and if calculated correctly they will work. Combine this with the insight that candlestick charts give you and you can create a system that works for you. Let me give you a example:
The above chart for Halliburton (HAL)[HAL] shows a large trading range between Dec-99 and Mar-00. Support was established with the October low around 33. In December, the stock returned to support in the mid-thirties and formed a low around 34. Finally, in February the stock again returned to the support scene and formed a low around 33 1/2.
After each bounce off support, the stock traded all the way up to resistance. Resistance was first established by the September support break at 42.5. After a support level is broken, it can turn into a resistance level. From the October lows, the stock advanced to the new support-turned-resistance level around 42.5. When the stock failed to advance past 42.5, the resistance level was confirmed. The stock subsequently traded up to 42.5 two more times after that and failed to surpass resistance both times.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Support And Resistance On Chart.
Support
A support level is the price at which buyers are expected to enter the market in sufficient numbers to take control from sellers.
The market has a memory. When price falls to a new Low and then rallies, buyers who missed out on the first trough will be inclined to buy if price returns to that level. Afraid of missing out for a second time, they may enter the market in sufficient numbers to take control from sellers. The result is a rally, reinforcing perceptions that price is unlikely to fall further and creating a support level.
Resistance
A resistance level is the price level at which sellers are expected to enter the market in sufficient numbers to take control from buyers.
When price makes a new High and then retreats, sellers who missed the previous peak will be inclined to sell when price returns to that level. Afraid of missing out a second time, they may enter the market in numbers sufficient to overwhelm buyers. The resulting correction will reinforce market perceptions that price is unlikely to move higher and establish a resistance level.
Role Reversal
Support levels, once penetrated, frequently become resistance levels and vice versa.
The market logic is fairly simple: buyers who purchase near a support level, only to see price fall, are likely to sell in order to recover their losses, when price rallies to near their break-even point. The support level then becomes a resist
ance level.
Likewise, stockholders who sell when price approaches a resistance level will be disappointed if price penetrates the level and continues to rise. They will be inclined to buy if price returns to near the support level, fearing that they may miss out a second time. The resistance level thus becomes entrenched as a support level.
A support level is the price at which buyers are expected to enter the market in sufficient numbers to take control from sellers.
The market has a memory. When price falls to a new Low and then rallies, buyers who missed out on the first trough will be inclined to buy if price returns to that level. Afraid of missing out for a second time, they may enter the market in sufficient numbers to take control from sellers. The result is a rally, reinforcing perceptions that price is unlikely to fall further and creating a support level.
Resistance
A resistance level is the price level at which sellers are expected to enter the market in sufficient numbers to take control from buyers.
When price makes a new High and then retreats, sellers who missed the previous peak will be inclined to sell when price returns to that level. Afraid of missing out a second time, they may enter the market in numbers sufficient to overwhelm buyers. The resulting correction will reinforce market perceptions that price is unlikely to move higher and establish a resistance level.
Role Reversal
Support levels, once penetrated, frequently become resistance levels and vice versa.
The market logic is fairly simple: buyers who purchase near a support level, only to see price fall, are likely to sell in order to recover their losses, when price rallies to near their break-even point. The support level then becomes a resist
ance level.Likewise, stockholders who sell when price approaches a resistance level will be disappointed if price penetrates the level and continues to rise. They will be inclined to buy if price returns to near the support level, fearing that they may miss out a second time. The resistance level thus becomes entrenched as a support level.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Support And Resistance Trading.
The concepts of support and resistance are undoubtedly two of the most highly discussed attributes of technical analysis and they are often regarded as a subject that is complex by those who are just learning to trade. This article will attempt to clarify the complexity surrounding these concepts by focusing on the basics of what traders need to know. You'll learn that these terms are used by traders to refer to price levels on charts that tend to act as barriers from preventing the price of an asset from getting pushed in a certain direction.
Support And Support Levels:
Support level is defined as the price level at which point the demand level is strong enough to stop the trading price from declining further. When prices reach this support level it is more likely to bounce off this level, than to break through this level.
The support level indicates the point at which the trading price becomes cheaper and traders become more interested in buying, giving way to a support level where sellers become less interested in selling.
When prices reach the support level it is proved that the increase in demand will outweigh the supply and prices will be stopped from falling below the level of support. When prices decline below the level of support, there is an indication of new willingness to sell. This may also be the case if there is a new unwillingness to buy.
Once the level of support breaks, the cycle will repeat from the start – A decrease in price will awake new interest in buying and a new level of unwillingness to sell -giving way to a new level of support This will form the new lower-level support level.
Support trading can usually be found below the current price, but it is not impossible to trade at or very near support. Support levels are not always easy to identify due to various factors. Price movement is by nature volatile and prices may briefly dip through the support level, before returning upwards. Predicting the point, at which a price is considered to be breaking through the support line, comes with experience and research. Some will only consider this breakpoint if the price closes 1/8 below the current established support level.
Resistance and Resistance Level:
Resistance level is defined as the level at which selling is considered strong enough to hamper the price from increasing any further. The level of resistance theory defines that as a price moves towards resistance, sellers become more willing to sell, and buyers in turn become more unwilling to buy. When the price reaches the level of resistance, supply will outweigh demand and the price will be prevented rising through the resistance level. A break above the resistance level predicts a new willingness to buy and a new lack of interest in selling.
Resistance will not always be strong enough to hold and a breakout might not always be able to break. The bulls must win the bears over before a breakout can be formed. Once the current resistance level has been broken through, the process will repeat and a new higher level of resistance is establishes.
Support And Support Levels:
Support level is defined as the price level at which point the demand level is strong enough to stop the trading price from declining further. When prices reach this support level it is more likely to bounce off this level, than to break through this level.
The support level indicates the point at which the trading price becomes cheaper and traders become more interested in buying, giving way to a support level where sellers become less interested in selling.
When prices reach the support level it is proved that the increase in demand will outweigh the supply and prices will be stopped from falling below the level of support. When prices decline below the level of support, there is an indication of new willingness to sell. This may also be the case if there is a new unwillingness to buy.
Once the level of support breaks, the cycle will repeat from the start – A decrease in price will awake new interest in buying and a new level of unwillingness to sell -giving way to a new level of support This will form the new lower-level support level.
Support trading can usually be found below the current price, but it is not impossible to trade at or very near support. Support levels are not always easy to identify due to various factors. Price movement is by nature volatile and prices may briefly dip through the support level, before returning upwards. Predicting the point, at which a price is considered to be breaking through the support line, comes with experience and research. Some will only consider this breakpoint if the price closes 1/8 below the current established support level.
Resistance and Resistance Level:
Resistance level is defined as the level at which selling is considered strong enough to hamper the price from increasing any further. The level of resistance theory defines that as a price moves towards resistance, sellers become more willing to sell, and buyers in turn become more unwilling to buy. When the price reaches the level of resistance, supply will outweigh demand and the price will be prevented rising through the resistance level. A break above the resistance level predicts a new willingness to buy and a new lack of interest in selling.
Resistance will not always be strong enough to hold and a breakout might not always be able to break. The bulls must win the bears over before a breakout can be formed. Once the current resistance level has been broken through, the process will repeat and a new higher level of resistance is establishes.
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Average True Range.
You may have read that many traders use the average true range for setting their stop losses. The reason is that the average true range is a fantastic measure of volatility and market noise.
Very simply, the average true range (ATR) determines a security’s volatility over a given period. That is, the tendency of a security to move, in either direction.
More specifically, the average true range is the (moving) average of the true range for a given period. The true range is the greatest of the following:
# The difference between the current high and the current low
# The difference between the current high and the previous close
# The difference between the current low and the previous close
If the current high-low range is large, chances are it will be used as the True Range. If the current high-low range is small, it is likely that one of the other two methods would be used to calculate the True Range. The last two possibilities usually arise when the previous close is greater than the current high (signaling a potential gap down or limit move) or the previous close is lower than the current low (signaling a potential gap up or limit move). To ensure positive numbers, absolute values were applied to differences.
Calculation:
True Range is the greatest of the following three values:
* difference between the current maximum and minimum (high and low);
* difference between the previous closing price and the current maximum;
* difference between the previous closing price and the current minimum.
The indicator of Average True Range is a moving average of values of the true range.
Very simply, the average true range (ATR) determines a security’s volatility over a given period. That is, the tendency of a security to move, in either direction.
More specifically, the average true range is the (moving) average of the true range for a given period. The true range is the greatest of the following:
# The difference between the current high and the current low
# The difference between the current high and the previous close
# The difference between the current low and the previous close
If the current high-low range is large, chances are it will be used as the True Range. If the current high-low range is small, it is likely that one of the other two methods would be used to calculate the True Range. The last two possibilities usually arise when the previous close is greater than the current high (signaling a potential gap down or limit move) or the previous close is lower than the current low (signaling a potential gap up or limit move). To ensure positive numbers, absolute values were applied to differences.
Calculation:
True Range is the greatest of the following three values:
* difference between the current maximum and minimum (high and low);
* difference between the previous closing price and the current maximum;
* difference between the previous closing price and the current minimum.
The indicator of Average True Range is a moving average of values of the true range.
Alligator Indicator.
Introduction:
Alligator indicator consists of 3 lines. They are Moving Averages with various parameters. Here they are:
The First line, or the chap of alligator, is a line of balance to the considerable period of time. It's used for the chart constructing - 13 period smoothed shifting average, moved on 8 bars to the future. The Green line, or the lips of alligator, is the line of balance for the considerable period of time, which is one more step less - 5 period smoothed shifting average, moved on 3 bars to the future. The Red line, or the teeth of alligator, is the line of balance for the considerable period of time, which is one step less - 8 period smoothed shifting average, moved on 5 bars to the future.
Interpretation :
How to interpret the lines? When all of them are jolloped, it means that the "Alligator" is sleeping, and the more it sleeps the more hungry it gets. Of course, when it wakes up after long sleep, it's very hungry and starts "hunting for food", which is price, till it is glutted. As soon as it happens, it looses interest to the food, which is price, and then the balance lines meet at the same point. It's when you should fix your profit. It's time to close all positions and wait till Alligator awakes up next time.
Alligator indicator consists of 3 lines. They are Moving Averages with various parameters. Here they are:
The First line, or the chap of alligator, is a line of balance to the considerable period of time. It's used for the chart constructing - 13 period smoothed shifting average, moved on 8 bars to the future. The Green line, or the lips of alligator, is the line of balance for the considerable period of time, which is one more step less - 5 period smoothed shifting average, moved on 3 bars to the future. The Red line, or the teeth of alligator, is the line of balance for the considerable period of time, which is one step less - 8 period smoothed shifting average, moved on 5 bars to the future.
Interpretation :
How to interpret the lines? When all of them are jolloped, it means that the "Alligator" is sleeping, and the more it sleeps the more hungry it gets. Of course, when it wakes up after long sleep, it's very hungry and starts "hunting for food", which is price, till it is glutted. As soon as it happens, it looses interest to the food, which is price, and then the balance lines meet at the same point. It's when you should fix your profit. It's time to close all positions and wait till Alligator awakes up next time.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Awesome Oscillator.
Awesome Oscillator Technical Indicator (AO) is a 34-period simple moving average, plotted through the middle points of the bars (H+L)/2, which is subtracted from the 5-period simple moving average, built across the central points of the bars (H+L)/2. It shows us quite clearly what’s happening to the market driving force at the present moment.
AO signals to buy:
* "Saucer" is the signal to buy which appears when the direction changes from the downward to upward with the second column is lower than the first one and is colored red and the third column is higher than the second and is colored green. It is generated when the bar chart is higher than the nought line.
* "Nought line crossing" is a signal to buy which appears when the bar chart passes from the negative values to that of positive. Two columns are necessary for it: one of them has to be below the nought line while another has to cross it.
* "Two tops" signal is generated when the bar chart values are below the nought line and when a top pointing down is followed by another one which is higher thus closer to the nought line. If the bar chart crosses the nought line in the area between the tops, the signal to buy is not generated. If an additional higher top is formed and the bar chart has not crossed the nought line, an additional signal to buy will appear.
Calculation:
Awesome Oscillator bar graph is a difference between 5-periods simple moving average, built on central points of the bar (H+L)/2 and 34-periods simple moving average built on central points of the bar (H+L)/2.
MEDIAN PRICE = (HIGH + LOW) / 2 AO = SMA (MEDIAN PRICE, 5) - SMA (MEDIAN PRICE, 34)
Where:
MEDIAN PRICE - median price;
HIGH - maximum bar price;
LOW - minimum bar price;
SMA - simple moving average.
AO signals to buy:
* "Saucer" is the signal to buy which appears when the direction changes from the downward to upward with the second column is lower than the first one and is colored red and the third column is higher than the second and is colored green. It is generated when the bar chart is higher than the nought line.
* "Nought line crossing" is a signal to buy which appears when the bar chart passes from the negative values to that of positive. Two columns are necessary for it: one of them has to be below the nought line while another has to cross it.
* "Two tops" signal is generated when the bar chart values are below the nought line and when a top pointing down is followed by another one which is higher thus closer to the nought line. If the bar chart crosses the nought line in the area between the tops, the signal to buy is not generated. If an additional higher top is formed and the bar chart has not crossed the nought line, an additional signal to buy will appear.
Calculation:
Awesome Oscillator bar graph is a difference between 5-periods simple moving average, built on central points of the bar (H+L)/2 and 34-periods simple moving average built on central points of the bar (H+L)/2.
MEDIAN PRICE = (HIGH + LOW) / 2 AO = SMA (MEDIAN PRICE, 5) - SMA (MEDIAN PRICE, 34)
Where:
MEDIAN PRICE - median price;
HIGH - maximum bar price;
LOW - minimum bar price;
SMA - simple moving average.
Accumulation Distribution (AD).
After AC lets talk about Accumlation/Distribution(AD). The more expanded the volume of trade is the more noticeable the price changes will be. Accumulation/Distribution Technical Indicator is determined by the changes in price and volume. This indicator is a less commonly used variant of the indicator On Balance Volume. When the Accumulation/Distribution indicator grows, it means accumulation of a currency, as the overwhelming share of the sales volume is related to an upward price movement. When the indicator drops, it means distribution (or selling) of the currency, as most of sales take place during the downward price trend.
Divergences between the A/D indicator and the currency price indicate the upcoming change of prices. As a rule, in this case, the price tendency moves in the direction in which the indicator moves. For instance, if the indicator is growing, and the price of the security is falling, a soon turnaround of price is expected.
Calculation:
* Description: Accumulation Distribution (AD) is a comparison of the price movement and the current range, with the result being used to weight the current volume.
* Calculation:
AD = ((Close - Open) / (High - Low)) * Volume
Trading Use:
Accumulation Distribution is usually used as a divergence indicator, with long entries signaled by bullish divergence, and short entries signaled by bearish divergence. Accumulation Distribution can also be used as an exit indicator, by showing the end (or the weakening) of the current trend.
Divergences between the A/D indicator and the currency price indicate the upcoming change of prices. As a rule, in this case, the price tendency moves in the direction in which the indicator moves. For instance, if the indicator is growing, and the price of the security is falling, a soon turnaround of price is expected.
Calculation:
* Description: Accumulation Distribution (AD) is a comparison of the price movement and the current range, with the result being used to weight the current volume.
* Calculation:
AD = ((Close - Open) / (High - Low)) * Volume
Trading Use:
Accumulation Distribution is usually used as a divergence indicator, with long entries signaled by bullish divergence, and short entries signaled by bearish divergence. Accumulation Distribution can also be used as an exit indicator, by showing the end (or the weakening) of the current trend.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Accelerator/Decelerator (AC).
Accelerator/Decelerator (AC) is an oscillator that measures activation or deactivation of the driving force on the market. It changes its direction before any changes in the direction of the price take place. This oscillator has much in common with Awesome Oscillator, but unlike AO, the crossing of the zero line is not a buy/sell signal.
Accelerator/Decelerator is mostly used to predict the change of the driving force on the market. When AC is at the zero line it means that the driving force is at balance with the acceleration. When AC crosses the zero line and goes up or down the only thing that should be traced is the change of the color of the bars.
Interpretation:
The nought line is basically the spot where the driving force is at balance with the acceleration. If Acceleration/Deceleration is higher than nought, then it is usually easier for the acceleration to continue the upward movement (and vice versa in cases when it is below nought). Unlike in case with Awesome Oscillator, it is not regarded as a signal when the nought line is crossed. The only thing that needs to be done to control the market and make decisions is to watch for changes in color. To save yourself serious reflections, you must remember: you can not buy with the help of the Accelerator Decelerator Oscillator, when the current column is colored red, and you can not sell, when the current column is colored green.
Methods of use:
1. When the chart is above the zero line and there are two green bars, it is a signal to buy.
2. When the chart is below the zero line and there are two red bars, it is a signal to sell.
Accelerator/Decelerator is mostly used to predict the change of the driving force on the market. When AC is at the zero line it means that the driving force is at balance with the acceleration. When AC crosses the zero line and goes up or down the only thing that should be traced is the change of the color of the bars.
Interpretation:
The nought line is basically the spot where the driving force is at balance with the acceleration. If Acceleration/Deceleration is higher than nought, then it is usually easier for the acceleration to continue the upward movement (and vice versa in cases when it is below nought). Unlike in case with Awesome Oscillator, it is not regarded as a signal when the nought line is crossed. The only thing that needs to be done to control the market and make decisions is to watch for changes in color. To save yourself serious reflections, you must remember: you can not buy with the help of the Accelerator Decelerator Oscillator, when the current column is colored red, and you can not sell, when the current column is colored green.
Methods of use:
1. When the chart is above the zero line and there are two green bars, it is a signal to buy.
2. When the chart is below the zero line and there are two red bars, it is a signal to sell.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
How To Use Moving Average For Your Profit.
Now we going to discuss that how we can use moving average to out advantage. As we already aware moving average is a lagging forex indicator which means that it is slow and it can only tell you what had just happened instead of telling you where the price is likely to move. However, by utilizing this lagging forex indicator together with repetitive price patterns, you can then form a reliable forex trading system to use.
If you have been seen a forex chart, you will notice that the price is constantly fluctuating up and down making it tough for you to visualize price action. What moving average does for you is to give you a visualizing line that can allow you to see the price movement.
Other than using the gradient of the moving average as a trend indicating tool, you can also make use of this forex indicator to place your trade. One of my favourite method of using moving average is the crossover.
This is what you need to do with this forex indicator:
Step 1: Set up a long term EMA (50 EMA)
Step 2: Set up a short term EMA (20 EMA)
Step 3: Observe the crossover of these two lines
If the short term moving average is above the long term moving average, this is known as the golden cross and it usually indicates that the trend is moving up. If the short term moving average is below the long term moving average, this is know as the death cross and it usually indicates that the trend is moving down.
This does not means that you should trade every crossover as it can be very devastating to your account. What you need to do is to make use of trend line or trend wall to help you place your trade. Remember this, you should only trade when there is a trend line break. If you are looking for forex indicator to use for your trading, you must add moving average to your toolbox.
If you have been seen a forex chart, you will notice that the price is constantly fluctuating up and down making it tough for you to visualize price action. What moving average does for you is to give you a visualizing line that can allow you to see the price movement.
Other than using the gradient of the moving average as a trend indicating tool, you can also make use of this forex indicator to place your trade. One of my favourite method of using moving average is the crossover.
This is what you need to do with this forex indicator:
Step 1: Set up a long term EMA (50 EMA)
Step 2: Set up a short term EMA (20 EMA)
Step 3: Observe the crossover of these two lines
If the short term moving average is above the long term moving average, this is known as the golden cross and it usually indicates that the trend is moving up. If the short term moving average is below the long term moving average, this is know as the death cross and it usually indicates that the trend is moving down.
This does not means that you should trade every crossover as it can be very devastating to your account. What you need to do is to make use of trend line or trend wall to help you place your trade. Remember this, you should only trade when there is a trend line break. If you are looking for forex indicator to use for your trading, you must add moving average to your toolbox.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Different Types Of Moving Average.
Now we are going to discuss different types of moving average(MA):
Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Simple, in other words, arithmetical moving average is calculated by summing up the prices of instrument closure over a certain number of single periods (for instance, 12 hours). This value is then divided by the number of such periods.
The volatility of the forex market is much more smoothed at the long periods of time due to the equal weight given for the daily price by SMA. Only the long-term trends bay me seen out of the long-term averages as far as any insignificant fluctuations get smoothed. For finding put short-term trends the short-term averages are taken, however they still give the long term expense.
The prices are mostly located close to the moving average but still aside from it. The moving average changes following the trend changes giving the additional data of the trend strength taking the slope steepness as its basis.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA):
Exponentially smoothed moving average is calculated by adding the moving average of a certain share of the current closing price to the previous value. With exponentially smoothed moving averages, the latest prices are of more value. P-percent exponential moving average will look like:
As moving averages are sometimes applied for the trend defining, they can also be used to see whether data is opposing the trend. Entry and exit systems usually compare data to a moving average to determine if it is supporting a trend or starting a new one. That's why the exponential moving average is just one of the types of a moving average.
In an ordinary moving average, all price data has the same weight in the calculation of the average with the oldest eliminated value as each new value is added. And in the exponential moving average equation as the average is being measured the most recent market action gets greater importance. Still the oldest pricing data in the exponential moving average is never eliminated.
A sell signal occurs if the short and intermediate term averages cross from the top to the bottom the longer term average. On the contrary, a purchase signal happens if the short and intermediate term averages cross from bottom over the longer term average. If you trade only 2 exponential moving averages in a crossover system it's better to use longer term averages.
It's rather important to know that a 5-day exponential moving average usually consists of over 5 days worth of data and can comprise data from all the life of a futures contract. So such moving averages can be more successfully searched by their actual "smoothing constants," as the number of days of data in the computation remains equal for the 5-day average as for the 10-day average. Exponential calculations are held at various moving average values depending on the point you start with.
Weighted moving average:
A weighted average is any average that has multiplying factors to give different weights to different data points. Mathematically, the moving average is the convolution of the data points with a moving average function; in technical analysis, a weighted moving average (WMA) has the specific meaning of weights which decrease arithmetically. In an n-day WMA the latest day has weight n, the second latest n − 1, etc, down to zero.
By looking at the moving average of the price, a more general picture of the basic trends can be seen MA are useful for smoothing raw, noisy data, such as daily prices. Price data can change greatly every day without demonstrating if the price is increasing or decreasing.
Moving averages can be used to see trends, that's why they can also be used to predict if data is bucking the trend. A weighted moving average is measured by multiplying each of the previous day's data by a weight. The weight in its turn is based on the number of days in the moving average. In this example, the first day's weight is 1.0 while the value on the most recent day is 5.0. This gives 5 times more weight to today's price than the price 5 days before.
Soothed Moving Average:
A Smoothed Moving Average is sort of a cross between a Simple Moving Average and an Exponential Moving Average, only with a longer period applied. The Smoothed Moving Average gives the recent prices an equal weighting to the historic ones. The calculation does not refer to a fixed period, but rather takes all available data series into account. This is achieved by subtracting yesterday’s Smoothed Moving Average from today’s price. Adding this result to yesterday’s Smoothed Moving Average, results in today’s Moving Average.
In a Simple Moving Average, the price data have an equal weight in the computation of the average. Also, in a Simple Moving Average, the oldest price data are removed from the Moving Average as a new price is added to the computation. The Smoothed Moving Average uses a longer period to determine the average, assigning a weight to the price data as the average is calculated. Thus, the oldest price data points in the Smoothed Moving Average are never removed, but they have only a minimal impact on the Moving Average, which is similar to how an Exponential Moving Average places more weight on the more recent data.
Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Simple, in other words, arithmetical moving average is calculated by summing up the prices of instrument closure over a certain number of single periods (for instance, 12 hours). This value is then divided by the number of such periods.
The volatility of the forex market is much more smoothed at the long periods of time due to the equal weight given for the daily price by SMA. Only the long-term trends bay me seen out of the long-term averages as far as any insignificant fluctuations get smoothed. For finding put short-term trends the short-term averages are taken, however they still give the long term expense.
The prices are mostly located close to the moving average but still aside from it. The moving average changes following the trend changes giving the additional data of the trend strength taking the slope steepness as its basis.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA):
Exponentially smoothed moving average is calculated by adding the moving average of a certain share of the current closing price to the previous value. With exponentially smoothed moving averages, the latest prices are of more value. P-percent exponential moving average will look like:
As moving averages are sometimes applied for the trend defining, they can also be used to see whether data is opposing the trend. Entry and exit systems usually compare data to a moving average to determine if it is supporting a trend or starting a new one. That's why the exponential moving average is just one of the types of a moving average.
In an ordinary moving average, all price data has the same weight in the calculation of the average with the oldest eliminated value as each new value is added. And in the exponential moving average equation as the average is being measured the most recent market action gets greater importance. Still the oldest pricing data in the exponential moving average is never eliminated.
A sell signal occurs if the short and intermediate term averages cross from the top to the bottom the longer term average. On the contrary, a purchase signal happens if the short and intermediate term averages cross from bottom over the longer term average. If you trade only 2 exponential moving averages in a crossover system it's better to use longer term averages.
It's rather important to know that a 5-day exponential moving average usually consists of over 5 days worth of data and can comprise data from all the life of a futures contract. So such moving averages can be more successfully searched by their actual "smoothing constants," as the number of days of data in the computation remains equal for the 5-day average as for the 10-day average. Exponential calculations are held at various moving average values depending on the point you start with.
Weighted moving average:
A weighted average is any average that has multiplying factors to give different weights to different data points. Mathematically, the moving average is the convolution of the data points with a moving average function; in technical analysis, a weighted moving average (WMA) has the specific meaning of weights which decrease arithmetically. In an n-day WMA the latest day has weight n, the second latest n − 1, etc, down to zero.
By looking at the moving average of the price, a more general picture of the basic trends can be seen MA are useful for smoothing raw, noisy data, such as daily prices. Price data can change greatly every day without demonstrating if the price is increasing or decreasing.
Moving averages can be used to see trends, that's why they can also be used to predict if data is bucking the trend. A weighted moving average is measured by multiplying each of the previous day's data by a weight. The weight in its turn is based on the number of days in the moving average. In this example, the first day's weight is 1.0 while the value on the most recent day is 5.0. This gives 5 times more weight to today's price than the price 5 days before.
Soothed Moving Average:
A Smoothed Moving Average is sort of a cross between a Simple Moving Average and an Exponential Moving Average, only with a longer period applied. The Smoothed Moving Average gives the recent prices an equal weighting to the historic ones. The calculation does not refer to a fixed period, but rather takes all available data series into account. This is achieved by subtracting yesterday’s Smoothed Moving Average from today’s price. Adding this result to yesterday’s Smoothed Moving Average, results in today’s Moving Average.
In a Simple Moving Average, the price data have an equal weight in the computation of the average. Also, in a Simple Moving Average, the oldest price data are removed from the Moving Average as a new price is added to the computation. The Smoothed Moving Average uses a longer period to determine the average, assigning a weight to the price data as the average is calculated. Thus, the oldest price data points in the Smoothed Moving Average are never removed, but they have only a minimal impact on the Moving Average, which is similar to how an Exponential Moving Average places more weight on the more recent data.
Meaning Of Forex Trend Indicators And Introduction Of Moving Average Indicator.
Trend indicators in Forex reflect three tendencies in price movements:
Up moves, Down moves and Sideways price moves.
Trend indicators help defining the prevailing direction - trend - of the price moves by smoothening price data over certain period of time. In simple words, Trend indicators allow to visualize Trends in the market.
MOVING AVERAGE INDICATOR:
Moving averages are one of the most popular and easy to use tools available to the technical analyst. Moving average Forex indicator is the average price for a given time interval in relation to other prices during the similar time periods. For instance the closing prices over a 5-day period would have a moving average of the total of the five closing prices divided by five.
A moving average is an average of a shifting body of data, as seen from its name. For example, a 10-day moving average is got by adding closing prices for the last 10 periods being measured and dividing by 10. The term "moving" is used as only the last 10 days are used in the measurement. That's why the data body is averaged shifted forward with every next trading day.
The moving average line will be placed directly in the price shifting chart. The moving average is measured with a definite predefined period. The sensibility of the moving average is weaker if the period is longer. The probability of false signals is higher if the period is shorter.
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